THE SETTLED

The market is betting that the US and EU will fail to meet their climate goals. Conviction is medium, with trading volumes in the tens of thousands. This means capital believes it's more likely than not that these governments will fall short of their environmental commitments. You're still holding out hope.

73% probability the US misses its 2030 climate targets. 65% probability the EU comes up short as well. In contrast, the market has decided India will succeed in meeting its goals. Conviction is medium across the board. The question is settled for everyone except you.

This means the market has already decided the climate you will inhabit. It has decided the food you will eat, the air you will breathe, the disasters you will endure. You're still living inside these questions. You are the underlying. The market has lapped you, leaving you to live out the answers it has already determined. This is what it means to be priced.